(Oops forgot to hit post at the time – better late than never right?)

On BBC’s frozen planet (the one of infamous misleading polar bear shots) after flying over the Arctic with two helicopters David Attenborough commented that the polars bears that the scientists he was with had been tranquillizing every year seemed to be doing not so well. In the context of the show this was linked to change in the polars bears environment, but I can’t help wondering what studies have been done on the ling term effects of tranquillizing polar bears.

But nope surely can’t be that, no chance drugs could have side effects.
The one article I did find makes interesting reading.

 

Via the ever well informed Katabasis my attention has been drawn to the rather worrying seizure of computers owned by UK climate sceptic bloggers. Apparently at the behest of the U.S. Department of Justice as other climate bloggers have received nasty grams (cache) from our friends across the pond. Last I checked the climategate e-mails where mainly (allegedly) pilfered from UK sources, and even ignoring that the emails are widely available so the US Department of Justice could just download their own copy. All in all a quite worrying development, state funded “scientific” research into climate change wasn’t a matter of national security last I checked. Rather generally the scientific method in the past has been to share research far and wide for verification and the like, so why are the powers that be on both sides of the pond going for climate bloggers?

I can’t help but suspect there may be more to this than meets the eye.

Do spread the word, and don’t forget to keep off site backups.

Updates: JoNova observes:
Now, more than ever, all the people that value their freedom need to stick together. Whistleblowers and radio personalities need blogger back up, big bloggers need small bloggers, every blogger needs commenter and emailer support, with letters to editors and friends. Every link in the chain helps. The establishment need to know that we will not be intimidated, there are many of us, and the more they push, the more we will tell the world.
and in the comments there:
They took away a DSL router? That would only be done by “experts” to frustrate access to the Internet.

And Watts Up With That? have been in contact with Roger (Tallbloke) and he tells me that he is not a suspect, and that they’ll clone his hard drives and return the computers to him.

Which is good news, and hopefully they’ll return everything quickly and undamaged (which doesn’t always happen) – this still seems really rather odd.

 

Wind turbine adds to global warming Having just finished reading a a missive to Mr Huhne about his windmills over at the < ahref="http://foggy-mirror.blogspot.com/2011/12/and-then-little-inconvenient-science.html">Foggy Mirror I was rather relieved to see that wind turbines can make a positive contribution towards the fight against the next ice age.

As they say in the popular* story “A game of thrones” -
winter is coming

Update: I suppose I should link to the actual story

* I am at least reliably informed it’s popular.

 

The ever diligent Katabsis has a rather wonderful article up dissecting how the investigative main stream media recycles press releases from the environment agency – terribly green of them. As a taster…..

The data shows several clear patterns:

- The so called “quality press” are the worst offenders for churning Environment Agency press releases – whilst there were many entries from the tabloids and local papers, their cutting and pasting was less egregarious than the “quality press”.

Now stop wasting your time here and go read it :)

 

Polar bear smoking on a block of iceHaving had occasion recently to journey to the fair city of York I picked up a copy of New Scientist to read on the train back home, and came across a few articles that were rather interesting, so in the order in which I encountered them.

The first concerned the ethical problems for anti-addiction drugs – now obviously helping people beat an addiction is a good thing. The drugs described though are vaccines that prevent you getting a high from the drugs, and as the article observes there is the risk that this will just cause addicts to take much larger quantities to get the same high. Nestled within the article between heroin and cocaine and talk of Amy Winehouses death was that they’d also done clinical trials of a nicotine vaccine. Now I’m no scientist* and this is just a flight of fancy but surely vaccines are normally administered before you get ill as a preventative so wouldn’t the more logical use of these drugs be to give them to children to prevent them acquiring the addictions in the first place? Now that’ll be a fun arms race kids Vs the vaccines as they experiment to find out what will still get them high, followed no doubt shortly after by huge law suits when it turns out the vaccines interfere with vital medical drugs.

The next article concerned the use of smart phones to augment CCTV monitoring, the chilling subtitle on the article really says it all:
“These networks will give the government eyes and ears in a thousand places at once”
The general thrust of the article is that with so many sensors on all those smart phones why not get them to report back to the state what’s going on. The two current examples are innocuous automatic detection and reporting of pot holes and GPS jamming signals. But ti rapidly starts talking about making some level of state desired monitoring compulsory by legislation as there are “major public safety issues at stake”. Once that’s done of course requiring additional monitoring devices to be added or getting extra data back will be a terribly easy and seductive idea for most governments. Again a small suggested idea is using bluetooth and such to identify and track stolen handsets, of course an application that’s doing that could very easily also be used to track the movements of phones belonging to “people of interest” (anarchists perhaps), and another suggest again moving from public safety to individual monitoring is that maybe in future your phone could check if you’ve had too much too drink or taken drugs the Government doesn’t like. As it says unless clear principles and checks are in place mission creep will happen, I’d suggest that if we let them even start down this road mission creep will happen regardless – no doubt due to unusual or extreme circumstances as a temporary measure or some such.

The final article I think answers a question that has been puzzling LegIron, why are smoking related diseases increasing as smoking decreases. The answer global warming!

“Air pollutants emitted decades ago are coming back to haunt us. As the Arctic warms, persistent organic pollutants, or POPs, trapped in snow and ice are being re-released. This unwelcome return has been suspected for sometime but is now confirmed by 16 years’ worth of data.

POPs travel around the globe on winds, build up in food and water supplies and accumulate in animal body fat. They have also been linked to serious human health problems, including cancer and can be passed from mother to fetus….”

Now if I’ve understood previous anti-smoking “science” that article surely adds up to dangerous levels of tobacco smoke being trapped in the Arctic and now being released due to man made global warming!!(Is it global warming this week or climate change?). Which can only mean it’s going to get far far worse as we melt back through time to the days when everyone smoked everywhere and all died of cancer before they were 5. At least following LegIrons excellent lead I’ll wager you could convince an awful lot of people that that’s what’s happening.

*Actually not entirely true I’m a few retakes short of being a scientist

 

Came across this rather amusing snippet in the Metro’s MiniCosm column, and felt it deserved slightly wider coverage, thought a quick search does show it’s being picked up quite well once you know to search for it (“sheep tree rings”)

The minicosm article says:

“For more than 100 years, tree rings have been used to record climate. But nibbling from sheep could have had more of an impact on their development than historic changes in the weather. After spending nine summers in pens with sheep, cross sections of 206 birch trees were measured. Tree ring widths were more affected by the number of sheep around than the ambient temperature at the site, Scottish and Norwegian scientists found. ‘The density of herbivores affects the tree ring record, at least in places with slow-growing trees” they said.”

A more in depth article can be found over on escience news. Which also notes that:
“Many factors in addition to climate are known to affect the tree ring record, including attack from parasites and herbivores, but determining how important these other factors have been in the past is difficult.”

So the “settled science” is based on an indirect indicator of temperature which is largely affected by non-climate related factors which can in themselves only be indirectly estimated:

“The good news is that past densities of herbivores can be estimated from historic records, and from the fossilised remains of spores from fungi that live on dung.”

And which judging from this study they’ve only just started to disentangle – now obviously this doesn’t disprove anything, well except that maybe the science isn’t actually settled. Though of course as LegIron is won’t to observe the moment anyone claims that the science is settled they’ve ceased doing science.

 

For the first time in a while there’s sunshine out the window, so it’s time to dust off the cobwebs on here so what better place to start than talking about the weather or climate change depending on what it’s convenient to call it. One of the things that has made me pay attention to the weather quite a bit this year was the failure of my Boiler on the coldest day of the winter so far, which almost cost me 150 quid or so but fortunately it fixed itself first. It seems the problem was a known issue with condensing boilers. Now I could be being silly, but a boiler which tends to fail when it’s really cold seems like one hell of a design flaw to me.

Meanwhile various sources have been claiming that the recent weather is in fact evidence of global warming, which apparently can now be expected to cause greater more unpredictable variation in weather. Which does cover all the basis fairly well, though snow wise at least I’m sure I remember the same sort of amounts of snow from when I was young – that is of course only anecdote not data. One of the much quoted bits of historical data was that we apparently had one of the coldest days for a hundred years or so. Which whilst odd would seem to me to be within the realms of normal variation, given with flood defenses at least you tend to hear experts talking about preparing for 50 year, hundred year and so forth events. So last year we had the same sort of snow as back int the early eighties and this year we maybe had a hundred year temperature event, it doesn’t really make for a compelling trend yet.

But whether it’s due to Global warming or due to Solar Action there does now seem to be some agreement that we should maybe prepare for colder winters, which I’m quite sure is at odds with what we’ve been told in the past. Still as the climate will inevitably change, with or without mans help, it’d be jolly useful if the scientists could let us know if this is just a rare event or for what sort of weather should we be preparing. Do we need to concentrate on making sure we can cope with hard winters or hot summers (I suspect the former makes more sense as it seems to be more disruptive – but what do I know). Or perhaps it would be best if e just let the weather kill as many of us as possible (as a NOAA Climate Scientist suggests)?

What however is really puzzling me, and I may well have just missed it, is as the “science” of anthropomorphic climate change* is settled – what exactly are it’s predictions and how can it be falsified? As what counts as evidence for global warming/climate change seems to change every time the weather isn’t quite as expected – which at least when I was at school wasn’t how science was meant to work.

* Is that what we’re currently calling it?

 

Via many places may I point you at a rather amusing skit by Armstrong and Miller and via The Foggy Mirror an article suggesting (as they suggested back in the 70s) that we should possibly be worrying more about another mini ice-age than about global warming.

The cold now sweeping over Europe and other parts of the globe are due to natural cycles, says German meteorologist Thomas Globig. He points out that the first 2 weeks of December in Britain have been the coldest since the last little ice age 350 years ago, and claims some climate models have criminally under-estimated solar influence on climate and that we ought to expect colder winters, and expanding Arctic ice in the years ahead.

So it looks like we may be in for rather a lot of weather, glad I bought a snow shovel.

 

It would seem that the settled climate change science which persuaded our great and glorious leaders to commit to legally binding CO2 reductions isn’t quite as settled as it seems as new research from NASA suggests that doubling CO2 won’t even raise the temperature by 2 degrees. It would seem from the headlines that many of the climate change models forgot that plants quite like CO2 and would grow a bit better and this would have an impact on climate change.

In particular, green plants can be expected to grow as they find it easier to harvest carbon from the air around them using energy from the sun: thus introducing a negative feedback into the warming/carbon process. Most current climate models don’t account for this at all, according to Bounoua. Some do, but they fail to accurately simulate the effects – they don’t allow for the fact that plants in a high-CO2 atmosphere will “down-regulate” and so use water more efficiently.

Good job that in these times of cuts backs and austerity that we’re not spending money on it and that we’re quite sure as to how we should calculate our carbon use, wouldn’t do to be pissing more money away due to bad science and ill thought out targets after all.

 

We shall march again
I see from Facebook that the students plan to take to the streets again, though this time for a peaceful protest. though their banner does look like a cross between a socialist revolutionary poster and Irish republican lyrics/slogans – both movements well known for their peaceful nature. The Facebook group claims over 6,000 people are going to be attending, however looking out of my window I can see about 3 inches of snow on the ground and more falling. Now admittedly I’m on the edge of town but I don’t imagine it’s falling much less in the centre. So I wonder how many students will turn up today and if it’s the violence from the “small minority” of previous protests and of course the “brutal police actions” or if maybe the weather being more obviously less clement that may put them off.

I am of course quite happy to be proven wrong, and there to be a decent turn out with no trouble at all. I actually expect that there will be less trouble though as I somewhat suspect that those only interested in causing trouble will have far less incentive to brave the weather than people that might actually be affected by the changes in university funding.

© 2011 Anonymong Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha