As I’m getting round to writing this way after everyone else, there’s not a lot left to say (which is good as I should be cooking my dinner). If you want an indepth analysis of how badly wrong the Yes campaign want then Liberal vision has it covered:
“In any two horse political race, it is damned near impossible to poll less than 40% of the vote. You have to be spectacularly inept or obscenely unpopular to drop below this figure. For example, no Republican or Democrat Presidential candidate in recent US history has fallen this far. Even Barry Goldwater, Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis – all famous for being electorally destroyed – managed to outscore the woeful YES percentage handsomely.”

From the thank you letter from the “Yes2AV” campaign I rather hope that they’re reasonably goods at logic as it starts:
“The votes from yesterday’s referendum have not yet been fully counted and verified, but it is clear that sadly the country has voted in favour of keeping First Past the Post.”
and ends:
“Everyone involved in Yes to Fairer Votes understands that change comes, but you have to want it – and fight for it.”

So I’d assume that the conclusion they’ve reached is that people don’t want AV, or possibly even change at all.

As Long Rider observes, some supporters of the yes campaign have gone from “how dare the No2AV people claim the electorate are stupid” to “the electorate are too stupid to understand” in the time it took to count the votes. But then as Mark Thomas observes in a referendum campaign there’s no penalty for either side in lying about everything- though it may just be that people are so angry with the LibDems that anything they support will fail. The only glimmer of hope for actually reforming our political system, which I think does need doing is that “71 per cent of the electorate do not actively support FPTP” so they may yet still support real reform.

 

OK I promise not to say too much more about the AV referendum, I’ve been and voted, and really most everything that could be said has been. However I’m seeing loads of pro-AV articles at the moment, and there is a huge fallacy they’re promoting that is really starting to get on my nerves. The claim that to win in AV you have to have majority support is just nonsense, as a simplistic example can show (well simplistic examples are popular with Yes2AV so I don’t see why I can’t use them).

Let’s consider 10 voters just because it makes the maths easy, and they’re voting for a whole 5 parties. Voting as follows:

Parties
Voters Party 1 Party 2 Party 3 Party 4 Party 5
Voter A 1 2 3 4
Voter B 1 2 2 3
Voter C 1 2 4 3
Voter D 1 2 4 3
Voter E 3 2 4 1
Voter F 2 1 3
Voter G 2 3 1
Voter H 1 2 3
Voter I 1 2 3
Voter G 1 2 3

So with out hypothetical votes cast lest see what happens:

Round one Party 1 and Party 2 both have 3 first preference votes, so more than the other parties so they go through. The parties with the least first preference votes now get dropped, so goodbye to parties 3 and 4. Party 5 got 2 votes so they go through to round two.

In round two Party 1 picks up one second preference vote giving it 4 votes.

Party 2 doesn’t pick up any second preference votes so still has 3 votes.

Party 5 also doesn’t have any second preference votes so still has two votes.

So that ends the counting and Party 1 wins with 40% of the vote and so gets in on a minority of the votes, when the electorate would rather have been governed by someone else. In fact on the strength of second preference votes Party3 is by far the most popular choice with a stonking 80% os the second preference votes. Too bad they got knocked out on the first count.

So there you go, AV still not making sure that the winning party actually has any support from the majority of the population. Fantastic.

Yes I know this is contrived, but it makes the maths simpler and the various, cat Vs. dogs and pubs Vs. coffee were equally contrived so as a popular idiom would have it “bite me”. Oh sorry for the lack of graphics, they’re really not my strong point, if someone wants to make a flash movie then be my guest.

 

So in a few hours people to start to vote on what we’re told is the most important matter for generations, how we get to pick our corrupt troughing MP’s every 5 years. They’ve generously given us the choice between no change or the absolutely smallest change possible. Though of course if we change to AV it would kill off any chance of introducing the real changes we need, as AV will have to be given a chance – 50 years or more to work out the bugs and let people get used to it (so goodbye to right to recall or anything useful like that). I’m afraid the stick we’re being offered is shitty at both ends.

Oddly this has led to a very poor campaign, the only bit of canvassing I’ve seen is a “No to AV” leaflet, didn’t even get the government guide to what the choices were. Unsurprisingly this doesn’t seem to have led to the most enlightened debate amongst the people I know, with some people claiming to have decided which way to vote just because one side at one point made a personal attack on someone on the other side. Now whilst that might be a good reason not to support a candidate or a party, the two choices we’re being given aren’t actually affected by how the campaigns are run.

Likewise what are we to make of a campaign that claims it’s for fairer votes, and thus increased democracy who’s campaigners put forward that AV will keep specific parties out of power. I mean just how little sense does that make:
Vote for fairer votes and make sure these parties I don’t like never get in
Surely that’s a reduction in democracy? As the standard says both sides have talked profound crud. The No to AV’s biggest bit of crud of course being to claim it’s far too complex.

Of course the AV side it ends tactical voting, which is also patent bollocks it may end first preference tactical voting – if we’re lucky. But that will only be because people know they can “waste” their first vote and then vote tactically on their second vote (as long as they’ve confident the people they don’t like won’t get in on the first round). The various choose a pub or go for coffee stuff put together by the AV side dumbing it down to the levels, where you have to suspect they agree with the No2AV side in thinking that it is all too complex for use poor proles. Likewise the idea that AV ensures that whoever wins must have got over 50% of the vote, is a simplification and only always true if everyone has to put a preference for all candidates otherwise it’s still possible for the winner to get in on a minority of votes so no change there then.

So as news thump says we shortly get to vote on which system is least shit, for when once every five years we randomly pick who’s going to steal from us for the next five years – having just been conned into thinking changing how we elect them will make any difference to their behaviour when we’ve still got no way to get rid of them.

I shall leave the last words on this false choice between two options chosen for us not by us ( I’d rather have a referendum on egtting out of the EU, or being able to recall MPS, myself) to Archbishop Cranmer:

“Tomorrow the UK is holding its second national referendum in its history. And this one is even more flawed than the first. In 1975, we were asked whether or not we wished to remain a member of the EEC, which we had joined two years earlier. That referendum ought, of course, to have preceded the selling of our birthright and the ‘pooling’ of our sovereignty: the retrospective plebiscite was more about uniting a fractious and fractured Labour Party than genuinely seeking a democratic mandate for winding back a thousand years of history. At least this time we are being asked in advance whether or not we wish to adopt the AV electoral system.”

Update Sorry I lied as I really must point you at an excellent piece over at Harry’s place about how pointless this tinkering with the system is.

 

Having been freed from the tyranny of saved links by dint of my computer crashing, I’m going to mutter about possibly the least interesting topic in poltics at the moment. Yes the “AV or not to AV” question, this is we’re told the most important thing to have happened for hundreds of years, a once in a generation chance to radically change our political system. to which I can only say “piffle” we’re being sold a bill of goods, being presented with a false choice.

If this is such an important question, why wasn’t it on all the party manifesto’s before the election? If this is such an important question how have we got to the point of a choice between only two systems with no debate in less than the space of a year? More than that who says this is our only chance? If the matter really is so important, why can’t we throw it back to our elected representatives and say “Nope not good enough try again”? Previous changes to our political settlement have been led by the people not imposed by the incumbent political elite. I’ve not seen a huge out cry demanding that we change our voting system, let alone that we change it to AV. Can you imagine the king turning up at Runnymede and telling the barons,
“Look you can either carry on as things were, or as an alternative I’ll let you write letters to me when you’re unhappy. What you want a parliament and rights? Sorry no can do – just as things were or writing letters”

That’s the false choice we’re being presented with, if we genuinely do want a new political settlement do we really want to leaves it’s details up to the incumbent bunch of proven corrupt party apparatchiks that sit in parliament? Or perhaps if a new settlement is needed it should actually be driven by the people – rather than letting a false grass roots movement made up of incumbent vested interests? Changing how we get people into power won’t stop them being corrupt, creating ways for us to get them out of power, like the proposed recall bill, might help. Though we are talking about people that have exempted themselves from the new anti-corruption legislation that will apply to us lesser mortals.

I’m not going to bother discussing the various merits or otherwise of AV vs. FPTP as I reject the choice. Let’s no throw out a system which has worked reasonably for hundred of years just because some corrupt thieving toe rags who got caught with their fingers in the till have drawn up a plan on the back of a fag packet to change the way we put their snouts in the trough (forgive my mixing of metaphors). They’ve still not sorted out the mess they made of “reforming” the lords, they’re pointedly ignoring the implications the regional assemblies and laws have for the act of union it self. So are these really the people we want to entrust changing our system of government with? Given their past performance do we really think the choices they’re deigning to give us are all of a sudden not motivated by self interest?

As a final thought I would suggest that if we wanted FPTP could be made a lot more representative if we the electorate actually voted for who we wanted to get in and not tactically. We might surprise ourselves and change things – after all tactical voting helps make the main parties so terribly safe and similar. If they start getting knocked into 4th or 5th place by small parties that seem to actually listen to what people want, who knows they might start paying attention as well. In the mean time how about that right of recall?

 

Produced by a friend of mine a rather amusing explanation of the “alternative vote” electoral system:

I still remain unconvinced that it’d be a change for the better.

 

Purple People Eater Now as promised/threatened I’m afraid I’m returning to the matter of the “take back parliament” coalition. Firstly though a correction to my earlier post in that Mark Ross appears to have no connection to Ekklesia except they published a puff blog for Take Back Parliament, so sorry about that.

Anyway onto looking at how they all sort of hang together, I’ve had to be quite restrictive in this as other wise it all spins out into far too wide a web very quickly. so I’m sticking to only looking at one or two degrees of separation. I’m also having to use a rather horrid table as being fairly new to this presenting this information in a useful fashion is quite tricky.

So anyway hopefully this will make sense and shed some more light on the Take Back Parliament coalition, who doesn’t seem to be that keen on open and transparent or that bothered about foreign influence on our democratic system.

This table just tracks down those groups listed at the bottom of Take Back Parliament and pulls out odds and sods of possibly interesting information. Before we get to that though a few facts about “Take Back Parliament”.

Take Back parliament
is co-ordinated by Mark Ross, Head of Campaigns for POWER2010
the media campaign/website appears to being run by Blue State Digitial a mainly American company but with a UK subsidiary BLUE STATE DIGITAL UK LIMITED (Company No. 06873977).

Now onto that coalition:

Coaltion member Controlled by Supporters/Partners in common Client of
Power 2010 The Democratic Reform Company Ltd
Company No. 07087541
Lord David Trevor Shutt of Greetland
  • OBV (Operation Black Vote)
  • BASSAC
  • NEF (New Economic Forum)
  • Electoral Reform Society
  • Compass
  • Unlock Democracy
  • Open Democracy
  • Ekklesia
  • 38 Degrees
Blue State Digital
Electoral Reform Society ELECTORAL REFORM SOCIETY LIMITED
Company No. 00958404
- Blue State Digital
APC
SoapBox
Enoughs Enough Domain registered via an anonymising service - Athenaeum Limited
Ekklesia EKKLESIA LIMITED
Company No. 05831226
- -
AVAAZ.org Domain registered by a private US individual – Ricken Patel,
organization founded by
Move On and Res Publica
- -
Compass Neal Lawson
Jon Cruddas
- SoapBox
Open Democracy OPENDEMOCRACY LIMITED
Company No. 03855274
previous: POWER AND DEMOCRACY LIMITED
  • Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust
    - Lord David Trevor Shutt of Greetland
  • The Tinsley Foundation
-
OBV Charter 88
  • Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust
  • Electoral Commission
  • Home Office
SoapBox
Vot for a change Electoral Reform Society
  • John Sauven, Greenpeace
  • Neal Lawson, Compass
  • Ken Ritchie, Electoral Reform Society
  • Pam Giddy, Power Inquiry
  • Wes Streeting, NUS
  • Peter Facey, Unlock Democracy
  • Richard Grayson, Social Liberal Forum
  • Benedict Southworth, World Development Movement
  • Dr Matthew Sowemimo, Director – Social Liberal Forum
  • Katherine Rake, Fawcett Society
Blue State Digital
SoapBox
Unlock Democracy Unlock Democracy
Company No. 02440899
Formerly:
09/07/1991 CHARTER 88 LIMITED
02/05/2008 CHARTER 88
  • Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust
  • Enoughs Enough
  • Electoral Commission
  • European Commission
  • Poverty & Environment Trust
SoapBox
Hang em Open Democracy Ekklesia -
BASSAC
Charity number: 1028784
Company number: 2869337
- Novas Scarman -
Greenpeace Without knowing just which bit of Greenpeace not even attempting this
Friends of the Earth - - -
Fawcett society
Charity No: 1108769
- - -
Democracy Matters
Charity No: 1108769
Titus Alexander – Novas Scarman Group
  • BASSAC
  • Novas Scarman Group
  • The Democracy Trust
  • Unlock Democracy
-
Social Liberal Forum James Graham (Secretary and website manager) is currently the Campaigns and Communications Manager for Unlock Democracy - -
National Union of Students Not attemtping this one either
Muslim Council of Britain
charity 1084651
Not attemtping this one either
British Muslims for Secular Democracy
Company No. 05905516
- - -
World Development Movement WORLD DEVELOPMENT MOVEMENT
Company No. 02098198
WORLD DEVELOPMENT MOVEMENT TRUST LIMITED
Company No. 03188734
charity 1064066
- APC

So there you have it quite a cosy coalition, not quite sure about the grass roots element of it, but there you go.

Just to have a quick look at some of those names, I’ve already mentioned Blue State Digital – who also have as a client those well known “grassroots” campaigners “38 Degrees”. Soap Box are apprently “communications agency for think tanks, campaigns, politicians and NGOs” with an interesting client list, so a lot like BLue State Digital. The other interesting one which cropped up in a few of those groups DNS records was APC – The association for progressive communications who apparently help grass roots movements like say “the elctoral reform society” and have an intersting list of funders.

I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with any of this as such, it’s just a tad obscure and international and not that much that speaks of a ground swell of popular non-activist self-interested involvement. The grass roots bit of thier campaign appears to have gone a bit quiet , despite there still being no-sign of PR on the political agenda, just fixed term parliaments with AV.

Anyway in the interest of our new open and transparent plotics, that’s how the take back parliament campaign and its coalition roughly fit together – at just a very few degrees of seperation.

For those that are interested this data mainly came from domain registration look ups, the various groups websites and then lookups at Companies House, The Charities Commission and the FSA Mutuals Registrar.

 

So back to the purple brigade, and many many thanks to Woman on a Raft for supplying me with some of this information (see comments here and here). I was getting quite confused as to how all the main players were related so I put together a bit of a family tree to try to make sense of it all. All of the information is in the public domain I’m just trying to put it together – in the spirit of our new open and transparent politics.

How they are related

Just to try to explain that a bit the dotted lines from BlueStateDigitial show their clients, the solid lines indicate clear channels of control (e.g. Mark Ross registered the domain for “take back parliament”, the other solid lines to “take back parliament” indicate members of the coalition). Despite this starting from Counting Cats post I can’t find a direct link from this lot to 38 Degrees though interestingly they did used to be registered as “Progressive Majority”.

Anyway back to the main players the client lists of both BlueStateDigital and SoapBox Communications make interesting reading as there are a lot of familiar names in both places.

For instance SoapBox list “Charter 88″ Unlock Democracy, Compass and the Electoral Reform Society as clients all of whom are part of the TBP coalition. Their other clients include people such as UNITE, but then “SoapBox is the communications agency for think tanks, campaigns, politicians and NGOs” – so perhaps it’s hardly surprising to see so many names cropping up in the same place. Looking at the supporters list for SoapBox client “Vote for a change” quite a few other TBP coaltion members crop up such as:
Benedict Southworth, World Development Movement
Dr Matthew Sowemimo, Director – Social Liberal Forum
Ken Ritchie, Electoral Reform Society
Neal Lawson, Compass
amongst others.

There are more interesting cross links, which again are surely just due to shared goals:
Coalition member Democracy Matters is it self a coalition that includes TBP supporters BASSAC and Unlock Democracy. The same group of names also crop up supporting Power 2010 including our friends over at Ekklesia(though oddly they list the Muslim Council of Britain twice.)

Many of the other TBP members are politcal “think tanks” e.g. New Economics Foundation and Ekklesia or politically associated group such as Social Liberal Forum (Which formed out of the LibDem Beveridge Group)

So with just a bit of poking around this great grass roots movement collapses into a circle jerk of think tanks, think tank controlled “independent” sites all mainly leading back to the same vested interests they helping us all protest about.

But at least that lot are at least notionally British, here for the delectation of all those that complained about the “foreign” influence of lord Ashcroft are a few of TBP’s international members:
Avaaz.org – Ricken Patel – New York
enoughsenough.org – registered via a Canadian anonymous domain registrar
power2010.org – registered by BlueStateDigital – Washington

That of course is ignoring possible international influences such as Greenpeace.

If you can fill in any further gaps that’d be great but I suspect it wouldn’t actually be possible to plot all the interconnections in this popularist movement, but the involvement of so many people from the “old” politics the campaign is meant to be changing troubles me. The same old think tanks, quango’s and wonks representing the same vested interests – I find it hard to believe their interest in reform has the same goal as many of the people on the protests.

 

Well that was terribly quick, Greenpeace have replied to my email already, though they don’t address my second point at all nor mention if they’ll be carrying out similar campaigns in other countries. Oh and it would have been nice if they could have spelt my name correctly.

Anyway here’s the reply:

Hello Gioalla and thanks for your e-mail, it’s great to hear from you.
Greenpeace is backing the Take Back Parliament campaign
http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/blog/about/broken-britain-more-broken-parliament-20100507
because Government policy and political lobbying are so
fundamental to our campaigns and environmental change. The Government
has huge power, and therefore huge responsibility, when it comes to
taking firm action on issues such as climate change, war and
disarmament, etc and we want them to be both representative and
accountable.

Best wishes,

Lisa Weatherley
Supporter Services, Greenpeace UK
www.greenpeace.org.uk

 

Much as I hate to bang on about the purple people over at “Take Back Parliament” but just noticed something rather interesting the domains takebackparliament.com and takebackparliament.org were registered before the election.

Both domains were registered by Blue State Digitial on the 29th April as can be clearly seen from the whois data:

Domain Name: TAKEBACKPARLIAMENT.COM
Registrar: TUCOWS INC.
Name Server: NS1.BLUESTATEDIGITAL.COM
Name Server: NS2.BLUESTATEDIGITAL.COM
Updated Date: 03-may-2010
Creation Date: 29-apr-2010
Expiration Date: 29-apr-2011

Domain Name:TAKEBACKPARLIAMENT.ORG
Created On:29-Apr-2010 15:47:07 UTC
Last Updated On:03-May-2010 16:42:03 UTC
Expiration Date:29-Apr-2011 15:47:07 UTC
Name Server:NS1.BLUESTATEDIGITAL.COM
Name Server:NS2.BLUESTATEDIGITAL.COM

Now of course it doesn’t hurt to be prepared, but I can’t help wonder just when Mark Ross (of Ekklesia who is also described as Head of Campaigns at Power2010 (thanks to Woman on a Raft)) first started talking to BSD and planning this campaign as websites such as the “Take back Parliament” campaign has don’t normally happen over night. The more I discover about this the less like grass roots and the more like astro turf the whole thing seems. But with first mover advantage taking back our voice from those behind “take Back Parliament” so that a genuine gras roots movement can emerge is going to be nigh on impossible.

 

As Greenpeace an international environmental campaign are backing “Take back Parliament” which strikes me as a tad odd, I thought I’d write to them and ask:
1) How it fitted with their other campaigns and will they be campaigning in other countries?
2) If they felt it was appropriate for an international charity such as themselves to be campaigning to change the electoral system of a democratic nation?

My e-mail is below, and I shall report on any response I get, I’d also note that they don’t mention this sort of campaigning on their donate page – hardly honest open and transparent.

Update Seems Greenpeace are also signed up to Make my vote count.

Update 2Friends of the earth are also signed up but at least are more upfront about their reasons (more Green MPs)

“Dear Greenpeace,

I’ve searched your website as you recommend and I’ve been completely
unable to find any mention of “electoral reform” amongst your
campaigns and goals. As far as I can make out, and have understood
since your inception, you are infact an international movement
campaigning on ecological topics. In fact as it says on your website:
“Our goal is to ensure the ability of the earth to nurture life in all
its diversity. We organise public campaigns:

* for preventing climate change by ending our addiction to polluting fuels and promoting clean, renewable and efficient energy
* for the protection of oceans and ancient forests
* for the elimination of toxic chemicals
* against the release of genetically modified organisms into nature
* for nuclear disarmament and an end to nuclear contamination.”

All very laudable goals, but electoral reform doesn’t appear to be
amongst them.

So I would be very grateful if you could kindly explain two things to
me:
1) Where does electoral reform fit into your goals and general
campaign structure and will you be campaigning for electoral reform in
other countries than the UK?
2) Do you think that it’s appropriate for an international charity to
be campaigning to change the electoral system of a democratic nation?

I look forward to your reply.

Thank you.

Giolla.”

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