A matter of policy

There is currently a bit of a kerfuffle going on on the platform formally known as twitter. Oddly the source of this is someone asking that a party they might naturally support do a better job of things, now whilst their town might rub some people up the wrong way it’s hardly an unreasonable demand. However this has caused some people who are more strongly aligned with the party in question to declare that asking a party to do better, and pointing out it’s flaws is unhelpful bordering on treasonous. These people could of course just mute, block and generally ignore this troublesome voice and move on with their lives, rather than spending energy telling our Cassandra to shut up, and what a bore they are and how very unhelpful it is to ask that a political party do better. Which quite frankly seems a bit odd.

To be fair to those bemoaning the Cassandra in their midsts, they are right in that policy doesn’t may not matter as most voters don’t read it, and all of the current major parties have convinced us all that manifesto’s aren’t worth the paper they’re written on. So against that background really what’s the point in worrying about the details, just go with the vibes and worry about it all later. I have a few problems with this personally.

My main problem first and foremost is I want to be able to vote for a party that isn’t cast from the same mould as those they’re claiming to be an antidote to. If a party isn’t going to publish policies and manifesto’s they can be held accountable to, then really it’s not much of an improvement on the current crop of wastrels. If a party wants to present itself as different from the others and worthy of our vote then it needs to behave differently from the other parties and really it has to do better than the other parties.

This brings me to my next point our angry voices crying out against people suggesting that their emperor has no clothes, say “Why aren’t you criticising the other parties, and pointing out their faults?”. Well why would you point out your opponents mistakes to them? I’ll accept that in the current climate there’s scant chance that any party will pay any attention to criticism and work to improve their tactics, but why take the risk? If a potential customer tells you that what you’re selling isn’t good enough, it would probably be worth considering their complaints and improve what you’re selling rather than telling them to go and look at your competitors.

Now of course having said that most people don’t look at policy documents and manifesto’s, after all what’s the point it’s all lies anyway, some people do. The other parties and journalists look at those documents to see how they can be used for attack, if it’s incoherent or can be presented as a bit too racy then that’s going to be amplified. At which point an awful lot of people who are never going to look at those policy documents are going to find out about your policies from people that are hostile to your point of view. There will be easily digestible clips of talking heads rubbishing your policies, saying how terrible they’ll be or just highlighting all of your contradictions. You’re then left having to spend your energy fighting all of that avoidable misrepresentation rather than getting your message out there. Which is really kind of pointless.

If you have a coherent set of principles on which your policies are built and a good idea of how you’ll actually implement them, then red team exercises (asked for or not) can be invaluable in improving your position. Or you can ignore such voices and wait for your opponents to make the same points in a far more visible and less helpful fashion. After years of political parties making promises that they have no plan to implement so they evaporate like a morning fog, offering more of the same isn’t a compelling sales pitch. People are allowed to ask how exactly you intend to carry out your promises, and they’re entitled to an answer – and if they ask it in a tone of voice you don’t like well tough, maybe you’re not cut out for politics.

Ultimately it seems that many of the people that would like to be our new government have forgotten that the UK doesn’t have a president. Unlike the USA and Argentina (to mention a two popular examples) an incoming Prime Minister can’t make things happen by executive order, they’re going to have to get legislation through – potentially against a hostile Parliament, Media and Civil service. So the freedom to act and the time to achieve anything is going to be severely curtailed, and if you’ve promised the moon but fail to deliver in what time you have in power then you’ll be tarred with the same brush as every other party that has promised to tackle the problems but failed. Which is in some ways most unfair, the problems facing the UK were a long time in the making and will take a long time to resolve. So laying out your principles along with both your aspirations and what short term steps you plan to take and what immediate improvements you hope to achieve is a much more compelling sales pitch. It is depressingly really just basic project management, which should be the bread and butter of those touting the value of having people from industry in power.

As a final thought it seems to me that a decent amount of progress on many problems could be made without any recourse to new legislation or sweeping changes, but simply but focussing on apply existing law in a even handed and consistent manner.

  • Halal and Kosher food is already restricted for sale in existing legislation – enforcing that properly could reduce the number of animals enduring unnecessary suffering at least.
  • Housing standards restrict multiple occupancy houses – which if enforced could have numerous social benefits.
  • Failure to deport people is often due to issues in how lower courts/tribunals interpret law not a problem with the law itself.

Of course increased enforcement requires people to enforce and inspect which doesn’t work so well if you want to take a wild axe to the size of the state. In a high trust society with strong social norms it’s easier to have a smaller state. But much like tech debt in IT, when you get behind on your maintenance and patching it takes a lot more work to get back on track then if you had just stayed on top of things, and sadly in the UK we’re very far behind on our patching. So getting back on track is going to take time and a temporary increase in staff, and to achieve anything worthwhile is going to take informed, well scoped prioritising – which one might reasonably expect to be reflect in the project documents and statement of work, or as they’re known in politics in the Policies and Manifesto.

The peoples histrionics

Yet again we’re told that democracy is under threat, our conditional niceties are being ignored and we’re days away from the death of democracy and people being rounded up into gas chambers (seriously people are actually saying this). The cause this time is Mr Johnson asking the Queen to prorogue Parliament so that she can give a speech explaining what he wants to do now he’s in charge. This is in fact entirely normal, constitutional and legal. “Ah but!”, they cry, “he’s done it to suit his agenda not ours”. To which quite frankly the only response one can give is “Well, d’uh!”. “Even worse”, they go on to bemoan, “he’s suspending parliament for weeks stopping proper scrutiny”. Part of this at least is true, Parliament is being suspended for weeks, but most of those weeks were agreed to back in July. You know just before all of our politicians left for the six weeks of holiday they voted themselves. Every year about now Parliament gets suspended so all of the political parties can have their conferences, so they can tell themselves what great things they’ll accomplish. Now the dates for the conference jollies hadn’t actually been voted on , just agreed in principle so Mr Johnson was possibly being a bit presumptuous. On the other hand all the conference venues are booked, and not a soul was talking about missing them let alone cancelling them – so not really that presumptuous. None the less, this tiny bit of presumption we’re told is an affront to democracy and will surely herald in a new third Reich (which I think would make it the fourth Reich, unless I’ve forgotten one in which case it would be the fifth Reich).

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Small numbers

The BBC recently published an article about how few people are needed to make fundamental changes to a society. Titled “The 3.5% rule“, it repeats research which has been around for quite a while. Though it seems to lower the numbers required to precipitate change. One of the observations the article makes is:

” although the exact dynamics will depend on many factors, she has shown it takes around 3.5% of the population actively participating in the protests to ensure serious political change. “

The article then goes on to say:

” Once around 3.5% of the whole population has begun to participate actively, success appears to be inevitable.

“There weren’t any campaigns that had failed after they had achieved 3.5% participation during a peak event,” says Chenoweth 

What makes this research getting an airing by the BBC interesting, is that people who like the BBC are also quite likely to dismiss concerns about immigration on the grounds that the numbers are small. That people’s concerns about the impact of immigration on social norms and society at large are unfounded because the numbers are small. 3.5% isn’t exactly a big number after all. Looking at ONS data after Christians ( which covers a lot of variants) and people with no religion the next largest group is Muslims. In the period April 2017 to March 2018 there where apparently 3,372,966 Muslins in Great Britain. That’s from a total population of 65,288,422 giving a percentage of 5.1% which is comfortably over the required 3.5% of the BBC article.

This isn’t to say that the Muslim population is about to embark upon some sort of revolutionary rampage. The research though does to me suggest that we shouldn’t dismiss concerns about changes to society on the grounds that a group is small. When someone says they’re worried about the impact of immigrants, “Nazi’s”, some other group on their town/school/country we should remember that it doesn’t take many people to cause change unless there is equally motivated resistance. Without an engaged population it would seem that society is more vulnerable to the diktats of small motivated minorities then perhaps many of us realise.