Verily it is to laugh

Breaking my own rules here, but really this just amused me far too much to not share (Tip of the hat to Natalie). From Shouting at Cows an article on everyone’s favourite up and coming left wing Journalist:
Laurie Penny; The Left-Wing Littlejohn

“I have a theory that Laurie Penny is actually brilliant satire. When I read her work, I feel sorry for moderate Tory voters that I would often condemn due to me basing my own mental manifestation of a ‘tory voter’ on the Daily Mail. But actually, Laurie’s column could be a thinly veiled attempt to bring us all together, and show us that there are bullshit merchants all over the place, and we shouldn’t base our opinion of others on them. Probably not, though.”

Well it amused me, go read the whole thing.

AV – and simple maths

OK I promise not to say too much more about the AV referendum, I’ve been and voted, and really most everything that could be said has been. However I’m seeing loads of pro-AV articles at the moment, and there is a huge fallacy they’re promoting that is really starting to get on my nerves. The claim that to win in AV you have to have majority support is just nonsense, as a simplistic example can show (well simplistic examples are popular with Yes2AV so I don’t see why I can’t use them).

Let’s consider 10 voters just because it makes the maths easy, and they’re voting for a whole 5 parties. Voting as follows:

Parties
VotersParty 1Party 2Party 3Party 4Party 5
Voter A1234
Voter B1223
Voter C1243
Voter D1243
Voter E3241
Voter F213
Voter G231
Voter H123
Voter I123
Voter G123

So with out hypothetical votes cast lest see what happens:

Round one Party 1 and Party 2 both have 3 first preference votes, so more than the other parties so they go through. The parties with the least first preference votes now get dropped, so goodbye to parties 3 and 4. Party 5 got 2 votes so they go through to round two.

In round two Party 1 picks up one second preference vote giving it 4 votes.

Party 2 doesn’t pick up any second preference votes so still has 3 votes.

Party 5 also doesn’t have any second preference votes so still has two votes.

So that ends the counting and Party 1 wins with 40% of the vote and so gets in on a minority of the votes, when the electorate would rather have been governed by someone else. In fact on the strength of second preference votes Party3 is by far the most popular choice with a stonking 80% os the second preference votes. Too bad they got knocked out on the first count.

So there you go, AV still not making sure that the winning party actually has any support from the majority of the population. Fantastic.

Yes I know this is contrived, but it makes the maths simpler and the various, cat Vs. dogs and pubs Vs. coffee were equally contrived so as a popular idiom would have it “bite me”. Oh sorry for the lack of graphics, they’re really not my strong point, if someone wants to make a flash movie then be my guest.

A few hours till voting starts

So in a few hours people to start to vote on what we’re told is the most important matter for generations, how we get to pick our corrupt troughing MP’s every 5 years. They’ve generously given us the choice between no change or the absolutely smallest change possible. Though of course if we change to AV it would kill off any chance of introducing the real changes we need, as AV will have to be given a chance – 50 years or more to work out the bugs and let people get used to it (so goodbye to right to recall or anything useful like that). I’m afraid the stick we’re being offered is shitty at both ends.

Oddly this has led to a very poor campaign, the only bit of canvassing I’ve seen is a “No to AV” leaflet, didn’t even get the government guide to what the choices were. Unsurprisingly this doesn’t seem to have led to the most enlightened debate amongst the people I know, with some people claiming to have decided which way to vote just because one side at one point made a personal attack on someone on the other side. Now whilst that might be a good reason not to support a candidate or a party, the two choices we’re being given aren’t actually affected by how the campaigns are run.

Likewise what are we to make of a campaign that claims it’s for fairer votes, and thus increased democracy who’s campaigners put forward that AV will keep specific parties out of power. I mean just how little sense does that make:
Vote for fairer votes and make sure these parties I don’t like never get in
Surely that’s a reduction in democracy? As the standard says both sides have talked profound crud. The No to AV’s biggest bit of crud of course being to claim it’s far too complex.

Of course the AV side it ends tactical voting, which is also patent bollocks it may end first preference tactical voting – if we’re lucky. But that will only be because people know they can “waste” their first vote and then vote tactically on their second vote (as long as they’ve confident the people they don’t like won’t get in on the first round). The various choose a pub or go for coffee stuff put together by the AV side dumbing it down to the levels, where you have to suspect they agree with the No2AV side in thinking that it is all too complex for use poor proles. Likewise the idea that AV ensures that whoever wins must have got over 50% of the vote, is a simplification and only always true if everyone has to put a preference for all candidates otherwise it’s still possible for the winner to get in on a minority of votes so no change there then.

So as news thump says we shortly get to vote on which system is least shit, for when once every five years we randomly pick who’s going to steal from us for the next five years – having just been conned into thinking changing how we elect them will make any difference to their behaviour when we’ve still got no way to get rid of them.

I shall leave the last words on this false choice between two options chosen for us not by us ( I’d rather have a referendum on egtting out of the EU, or being able to recall MPS, myself) to Archbishop Cranmer:

“Tomorrow the UK is holding its second national referendum in its history. And this one is even more flawed than the first. In 1975, we were asked whether or not we wished to remain a member of the EEC, which we had joined two years earlier. That referendum ought, of course, to have preceded the selling of our birthright and the ‘pooling’ of our sovereignty: the retrospective plebiscite was more about uniting a fractious and fractured Labour Party than genuinely seeking a democratic mandate for winding back a thousand years of history. At least this time we are being asked in advance whether or not we wish to adopt the AV electoral system.”

Update Sorry I lied as I really must point you at an excellent piece over at Harry’s place about how pointless this tinkering with the system is.